Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
